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Monday, 7 March 2011

foreign policy

Seriously, does anyone in the government actually know what the government's position on Libya is?

David Cameron clearly overstepped himself radically when he tried to lead the line with talk of a no-fly-zone, as you could actually hear the Americans laughing from all the way over the Atlantic. This is probably why he's just resolved to not say anything at all about it; he's leaving it to his Foreign Secretary, who appears to have about as much foreign policy experience as your average aging shut-in. First we sent in the SAS to get our people out, then we sent them in again to negotiate with the rebels, before denying that they had been because thanks to some stupendous fuck-up they got captured. Then we admitted that they had been there, because we got them out again, and it wouldn't look good if we were able to just magically produce SAS officers out of a hat, or rather a ship bound for Malta. That would put a whole new spin on the massive cuts to the army, wouldn't it?

Well, that's probably another thing that's keeping Dave's trap shut about the whole thing; while the rest of the world is humming and ha-ing about interventions, with the Americans actually openly (well, not openly, but you know) inviting the Saudis to arm the rebels for them, Britain's army is at its most weakened state for hundreds of years. I mean, really, we've left ourselves utterly defenceless; never mind launching an intervention in a country the size of Europe, we need to be looking out for invasions from France and the Faroe Islands. I guess that's why Dave went on a little tour of the Middle East selling everyone guns the other week. Just let them fight it out among themselves, eh? And we can make a tidy profit selling them guns.

And Nick Clegg is obviously far too busy fire-fighting in his own house to concern himself with the fate of the free world. Although he was off skiing the last time there was a flare-up in the Mid-East, I seem to remember... After the Lib Dems got so utterly thrashed in the Barnsley by-election, he initially attempted to claim that it was never a seat the Lib Dems were going to win anyway - clearly indicated by the way they finished second just 10 months ago. Then he insisted, before the Party's Scottish conference in Perth, that people shouldn't write off the Lib Dems, that they had been written off before and proved everyone wrong. He was rather preaching to the choir though, as only a few hundred party activists had wandered into the hall for his speech, most preferring to mount protests outside which Nick artfully dodged "for security reasons" by nipping in the back door. Malcolm Bruce was heard to remark while queuing to get through the hightened door security, "we never had this problem before we were important"...not to worry Malc, I don't think you'll need to be too concerned come the next parliament.

The government just seems to have lost their way a bit. On the issues they have had long planned out they're steady enough on the Party line - except the Big Society albatross, which even the rank and file Conservative Party is now rejecting - but they're showing quite an inability to react to new and sudden events. Really, last May, they weren't forming any long-term plans for a possible revolution in the Middle East; hence the appointment of William Hague as foreign minister. A perfectly capable politician in his own right, and a very intelligent man, but not one who has learned to roll with the punches on the international stage. There's just a kind of stubborn rigidity about the government on foreign policy, and it's one that has arguably always existed in David Cameron's Conservative Party. It was never really a topic they could run on in the Election - I'd wager that every populist bone in Dave's body wanted to try to harness public discontent over the Iraq War, but he and his Party had all voted for it, so even he couldn't swing that one. Europe has always been the great divisive issue between the leader and the Party, too, so he was never going to have any joy there...over the first months of the coalition, they presented quite a composed, united front, but it seems to have been because they were able to conduct their battles on their own ground, and on their own terms; domestic and in particular economic policy were always the issues of the day. Now that something from outside their ballpark has flared up and caught the public attention, they're learning a new lesson about what it is to be the Government - you have to be able to react to events swiftly and decisively, and risk looking like a tit if you make the wrong call. The divided and slightly confused nature of the government as it stands makes this difficult, as different elements are pulling in different directions in ways which were presumably never discussed in the coalition agreement. This will be a real test for them, and due to the size of the stakes, one that they can ill afford to mess up any further.

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